I have written a couple of times about the importance of things like, systems thinking, decision making, ladders of inference, diversity, thought processes etc...One of my favourite commentators on all things Global is a fellow by the name of
Joshua Cooper Ramo - author of a book entitled, "The Age of the Unthinkable". He has written a few other books (on China) but the thing I like about him is his ability to get people to
think about new ways of approaching problems. My wife says I'm a "thinker" so I guess its one reason he appeals to me.
Here's some bits and pieces from an interview with Joshua published by the
Huffington Post on the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). The full article can be viewed by following the
link.
You've said the GFC could turn China into a superpower. How likely is that?
The Chinese have been actively building systems that are capable of surviving all kinds of shocks, and they are more suspicious of markets than we are -- they see everything as having the potential for collapse. As a result, China has developed a more resilient command-and-control economy.
Some experts say there is a fundamental difference in the way people think, are the Chinese better able to see the big picture?
It's not so much that they see it better, just that they see it differently and take in a wider range of influence and possibility. For the Chinese context is everything.
Is the inability to see context a growing problem for Americans?
Yes, I think it is. We often miss the fact that the problems or dangers we face are parts of a complete system and not just isolated blips of risk. For example, we thought we could contain the subprime crisis before we noticed our entire financial system was in trouble. We focused on removing Saddam before we understood all the forces swirling around him. Americans have a view of the world that is rooted in one of the most ancient concepts of Western thought: we believe that to understand something complex you must break it into smaller pieces. But this approach may no longer be suitable to today's world.
China now has an underground base in the South China Sea that can launch nuclear submarines without being observed from the sky. Does the U.S. fail to appreciate just how quickly new technology is answered by newer technology?
It's less about tactical innovations like particular submarine bases and more about understanding the Chinese philosophy of war and conflict. The Chinese approach to warfare is very different from ours. For example, rather than building 500 fighter planes to intercept every American fighter plane, they would try to take out our satellite navigation system.
In your book you argue that real power isn't always loaded into obvious implements like armies. Today real power is the ability to adjust and come back strong when you're faced with an unexpected shock. That's because in the future we will be constantly surprised -- sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. All of the things that are changing our world, like jet travel and violence and financial markets, are what make us modern and we accept the risks that go along with them. But they also make our world more interconnected, so now a shock to one part of the system presents a greater risk to other parts of the system.
Younger people tend to be more resilient. What does that say about President Obama's cabinet?
You hate to generalize, but I do think young people are more accepting of change. It's no accident that Obama won the presidency on the motto of change. The younger generation has seen so much change in their lifetime, they have a very different perspective. But it's really not about age. You can be 30 years old and very conservative. What matters most now is an innovative spirit and a belief that it is possible to have radical, disruptive change for the better.
We need fresh minds thinking about interesting ideas that could inform the policy-making process.